Growth plan for PEScience, 4 Oct 2026
Scale spend. Hold CAC.
One number to protect: a target CAC of $14.40. PEScience already sells the Pre-Workout Sample Kit at $11.99, a low-risk first order. The plan tests creator ads around it, kills losers early and scales only what holds.
- Target CAC
- $14.40
- New ads a week at peak
- 20
- Creators live by week six
- 10
- Test spend, six weeks
- $24,000
Contents
10 chapters, then the gates and every number’s source.
01 The number
Hold $14.40 CAC while the Pre-Workout Sample Kit sells at $11.99
The number to protect is a target CAC of $14.40. It is 0.6 of a $24.00 ceiling, built from a $30 average order, a 40% margin and one repeat order. Those inputs are my assumptions until week one replaces them with your data.
Protect
Target CAC: $14.40 on a first purchase
Ceiling = average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders): $30 × 40% × (1 + 1) = $24.00. Guard line = 0.6 × $24.00 = $14.40. Across the ranges: $3.67 to $121.49.
Three moves
- Launch tests on the Pre-Workout Sample Kit at $11.99, so the first order is easy to say yes to.
- Kill any ad that runs past the guard line of $14.40 before it takes more budget.
- Move budget only to ads that hold CAC for a full week, one variable per test.
- Pre-Workout Sample Kit price
- $11.99
- Published
- USA free shipping threshold
- $60
- Published
- servings per OleaPure bottle
- 120
- Published
02 Variety
Select Protein, Versa Energy and TruCreatine each need own hooks
Each ad concept has to carry one product, one reason to try it and one offer: a sample kit at $11.99, a Select Protein flavor, a Versa Energy flavor, or OleaPure with 120 servings per bottle. Creators change the face and the hook, not the claim.
| Reason to buy | Proof you already have | Ads (proposed) |
|---|---|---|
| Try before the full tub | $1.99 sample available — try one serving before committing to a full tub | 8 |
| Pumps without caffeine | 100% stimulant free — no caffeine, no beta alanine, zero tingle | 3 |
| Creatine, kept plain | 3g Creapure® micronized creatine monohydrate per serving | 2 |
| More than sodium | Most electrolyte powders are 90% sodium with a flavor packet. | 2 |
| Dessert flavor, low sugar | 0–1g sugar — dessert flavor without the sugar load | 1 |
| Stacks that save | all in one stack, and save $10 vs. buying separately | 1 |
| Free US shipping | USA: Free shipping on orders over $60. | 1 |
| Total | The ad concepts tab | 18 |
Each row is a reason to buy that the brand already has proof for. The count is how many of the ads carry it: a reason with a single ad is a bet, not a pattern, and the next batch of concepts moves toward the reasons that win.
03 Disturbances
Age-verification fees and sample kits are where CAC can slip
| Disturbance | Likelihood | Impact | Owner | Gate (proposed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age-verification fees surprise shoppers after the free shipping promise | High | Med | Your team | Pause the ad set if checkout drop-off at the fee step is worse than the prior week. |
| Sample kit buyers never come back for a full tub | Med | High | Both | Hold scaling if repeat orders trail the one-repeat input behind the $24.00 ceiling at day 60. |
| Supplement claims in ads go beyond your own label wording | Med | High | Me | No ad ships unless every claim matches the claims sheet line for line. |
| Creators fall short of the 10 live by week six | Med | Med | Me | If fewer than 6 creators are live at week 4, cut the next ad batch to match. |
| Tracking breaks and the CAC read becomes unreliable | Med | High | Your team | No spend scales until order events match store orders for a full week. |
| $11.99 kits sit under the $60 free-shipping line, so shipping may eat margin | Med | Med | Both | At day 14, compare shipping cost per kit order with the margin input; stop kit ads if it is lower. |
| Winning ads fatigue fast and CAC drifts above $14.40 | Med | Med | Me | Rotate in new hooks when CAC holds above $14.40 for three days running. |
Scores are my read from outside the company, re-scored in week one with your data. Each risk has one owner and one gate that can be checked with a number, so nobody has to argue about whether it happened.
04 The ceiling
A $24.00 ceiling, and a $14.40 guard line under it
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Average order | $30 (range $6.99–$89.99) | Assumption Range from the site product prices (Published); the midpoint is a guess |
| Gross margin | 40% (range 35–45%) | Assumption Replace in week one |
| Repeat orders after the first | 1 (range 0.5–2) | Assumption Replace with cohort data in week one |
| Margin per customer, all orders | $24.00 | Calculated Average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders) |
| Guard line for CAC | $14.40 | Calculated 0.6 × the margin per customer |
The math, with the assumed lines
Ceiling = average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders): $30 × 40% × (1 + 1) = $24.00. Guard line = 0.6 × $24.00 = $14.40. Across the ranges: $3.67 to $121.49.
Range across the assumptions: $4 to $121.
The $24.00 ceiling uses a $30 order, a 40% margin and one repeat order. Those are guesses, not facts about PEScience. Week one replaces them with your real order value and margin.
The ceiling is a range, not one number: the most a new customer can cost before shipping and packaging, which I do not have. Replace the guessed lines with yours and every figure below recalculates.
05 Test ramp
Six weeks of tests, $24,000 in total, before scaling anything
| Week | New ads × budget / ad (proposed) | Weekly test spend | Cumulative | Creators posting | CAC target (proposed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 × $250 | $3,000 | $3,000 | 0 | $14 |
| 2 | 12 × $250 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 2 | $14 |
| 3 | 12–20 × $250 | $4,000 | $10,000 | 4 | $14 |
| 4 | 12–20 × $250 | $4,000 | $14,000 | 6 | $14 |
| 5 | 20 × $250 | $5,000 | $19,000 | 8 | $14 |
| 6 | 20 × $250 | $5,000 | $24,000 | 10 | $14 |
Six weeks, Proposed. Weeks 1 and 2 run 12 ads each at $250, $3,000 a week. Weeks 3 and 4 move to 12–20 ads, $4,000 a week. Weeks 5 and 6 run 20 ads, $5,000 a week. Total $24,000 of tests, losers killed early.
The math. Week 1: 12 × $250 = $3,000; Week 2: 12 × $250 = $3,000; Week 3: 16 × $250 = $4,000; Week 4: 16 × $250 = $4,000; Week 5: 20 × $250 = $5,000; Week 6: 20 × $250 = $5,000. Total $24,000 (96 ads × $250). A range such as 12–20 counts as its midpoint.
Weeks one and two test what the brand already has, rewritten per reason to buy. From week three, creator videos enter paid only after they beat their own account median. A range of new ads counts as its midpoint in the spend column.
06 Volume
More concepts, more winners: Select Protein has 8 flavors to test
More concepts mean more chances at a winner. Hit rate and spend per winner are assumptions: 20 concepts give 2 winners, 80 give 8. Select Protein flavors alone give a deep bench to test.
| Concepts tested / month | Hit rate (assumed) | New winners / month | Spend each winner holds (assumed) | Added spend at target CAC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 10% | 2 | $300 / day | $18,000 / month |
| 40 | 10% | 4 | $300 / day | $36,000 / month |
| 60 | 10% | 6 | $300 / day | $54,000 / month |
| 80 | 10% | 8 | $300 / day | $72,000 / month |
The math. 20 concepts × 10% = 2 winners × $300 × 30 days = $18,000 a month; 40 concepts × 10% = 4 winners × $300 × 30 days = $36,000 a month; 60 concepts × 10% = 6 winners × $300 × 30 days = $54,000 a month; 80 concepts × 10% = 8 winners × $300 × 30 days = $72,000 a month.
The hit rate and the spend each winner holds are placeholders. The first thirty days of tests replace them with real numbers, and the table is recalculated the same day.
07 Allocation
Where the $100,000 goes first: creators, ads, pages, reporting
- Creator pay and product seeding for sample kit videos
- $45,000
- 45%
- Paid social test and scale spend on Meta
- $35,000
- 35%
- Landing pages built per creator hook
- $10,000
- 10%
- Tracking and reporting setup
- $10,000
- 10%
The percentages split the $100,000 budget, Proposed, and shift toward whatever holds the $14.40 CAC.
The math. 45% × $100,000 = $45,000; 35% × $100,000 = $35,000; 10% × $100,000 = $10,000; 10% × $100,000 = $10,000. Sum 100% = $100,000.
This split is a proposal. It moves toward scaling as winners prove out, and toward testing when fatigue shows.
08 Channels
Meta first, then the channels Versa Energy cans suit
| Channel | Open when (proposed) | Why wait |
|---|---|---|
| Meta | Week 1, with 12 ads built around the sample kits | Paid social is where creator videos get tested fastest against the $14.40 guard line. |
| TikTok | After week 2, once creator videos show a CAC under the ceiling | Short creator videos for Versa Energy flavors fit the format. |
| YouTube Shorts | When creators live reach 6, around week six | Same creator cuts for Select Protein and TruCreatine, no new production. |
| Email and SMS | Once first orders arrive and tracking is clean | Repeat orders sit inside the $24.00 ceiling; flows can bring kit buyers back to full tubs. |
| Instagram Reels | Week 4, with the best Meta cuts | Same videos and hooks, one more placement. |
A channel opens when its condition is true, not when the calendar says so. Until then the budget stays where the CAC is earned.
09 Payback
Payback decides: $29.99 tubs must earn back CAC on repeat orders
Payback is the real constraint. At a CAC of $5 the first order pays back and leaves $19.00. At $15 it takes repeat orders and leaves $9.00. At $25 it never pays back, −$1.00 left, so I stop. At $35, −$11.00 left, stop. Sample kit buyers must reach full tubs for repeats to count.
Cumulative margin per customer, order by order, before CAC: $12.00, $24.00.
| CAC (scenario) | First-order margin | Year-one margin | Left after CAC | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $5 | $12.00 | $24.00 | $19.00 | First order |
| $15 | $12.00 | $24.00 | $9.00 | After repeat orders |
| $25 | $12.00 | $24.00 | −$1.00 | Never: stop |
| $35 | $12.00 | $24.00 | −$11.00 | Never: stop |
The math. CAC $5: $24.00 − $5 = $19.00 left; pays back: First order; CAC $15: $24.00 − $15 = $9.00 left; pays back: After repeat orders; CAC $25: $24.00 − $25 = −$1.00 left; pays back: Never: stop; CAC $35: $24.00 − $35 = −$11.00 left; pays back: Never: stop.
Read each row left to right: the margin of the first purchase, the margin over the whole horizon, what is left after CAC, and the purchase on which the CAC is earned back. A scenario that never pays back is a stop, not a test.
10 Scope
Scope: ads, creators and pages; not your product or your pricing
Covers
- Paid social tests and scaling, with losers killed early
- Creator briefs, hook library and ad concepts per product
- Landing pages built per creator hook
- Daily CAC, weekly learnings, monthly cohort payback
Doesn’t
- Your product, formulas or pricing
- Event tracking build; I spec it, your team works it through
- Regulatory or label review of supplement claims
- Fulfilment, shipping and age-verification carrier rules
What this plan covers is what I can change inside the ad account and the creator program. Everything outside it is named on the right so nobody assumes it is handled.
Gates, written before spend, so stopping isn’t a negotiation.
| Day | Keep going if (proposed) | Stop or change if |
|---|---|---|
| Day 14 | Two tests have read out and at least one ad runs under the $14.40 target CAC | No ad under $24.00 CAC after the first two weeks of tests |
| Day 30 | Creators live match the plan and blended CAC is at or below $14.40 | Blended CAC above $24.00 for two weeks running |
| Day 60 | Repeat orders are in line with the one-repeat input behind the $24.00 ceiling | Sample kit buyers show no repeat orders at all |
| Day 90 | Spend has scaled and CAC still holds at $14.40 or below | Spend scaled but CAC sits above $24.00 |
Each gate is checked on its day with the numbers in the daily and weekly reports. If the stop condition is true, the spend stops and nothing renews until we talk.
What exists, what’s missing, and the order that’s forced.
| Piece | Exists today | Missing | Forced order |
|---|---|---|---|
| claims sheet | Label wording for OleaPure, 120 servings per bottle | One approved sheet that every ad can quote | Week 1 |
| creative | Pre-Workout Sample Kit at $11.99 as a ready hero offer | Hook library and ad concepts per product | 1st |
| reporting | A store with free shipping over $60 to read orders from | A daily CAC view agreed with your team | 1st |
| creators | A range from Select Protein to Versa Energy | Creators who fit each product | 2nd |
| landing pages | Pages like Select Protein - Variety Pack at $59.99 | Pages built per creator hook | 2nd |
The order is forced on purpose: creative and creators come first because they are what moves CAC, and everything else waits for that data.
Every number, and where it came from.
| Figure | Where it came from | Type |
|---|---|---|
| $11.99 Pre-Workout Sample Kit price | https://pescience.com/products/pre-workout-sample-kit | Fact |
| $60 USA free shipping threshold | https://pescience.com/pages/shipping-returns | Fact |
| 120 servings per OleaPure bottle | https://pescience.com/products/oleapure | Fact |
| Product prices $6.99–$89.99 | product prices in the site product data (50 products), read 2026-10-04 | Fact |
| $30 average order · 40% margin · 1 repeat order | Placeholders, replaced in week one | Assumed |
| $14.40 target CAC | 0.6 of the $24.00 margin per customer | Calculated |
| $24.00 margin per customer | Price × (margin − discount), summed over the orders | Calculated |
| $24,000 of tests (96 ads × $250) | Danilo’s plan, matches Month one | Calculated |
| 0→10 creators in 6 weeks · 7 videos per creator a week | Danilo’s plan, matches Month one and the Creator engine | Proposed |
| $100,000 first budget split 45% / 35% / 10% / 10% | Danilo’s plan, re-set with the team in week one | Calculated |
| 10% hit rate · $300 a day per winner | Placeholders, replaced by the first 30 days of tests | Assumed |
| 303 creator videos a month at 10 creators | 10 creators × 7 videos a week × 52 ÷ 12 | Calculated |
| $5.74 per 1,000 views against a $1 target | Creator cost over the views the assumptions give | Calculated |
| $1,000 base pay · $50 bonus past 100,000 views | Danilo’s plan | Proposed |
| 1,500 median views · 4% breakout (10×) · 0.5% viral (750,000) | Placeholders, replaced by the first month of posts | Assumed |
| Pay bands $300–$600, $500–$1,000, $800–$1,500 | Danilo’s plan | Proposed |
Every figure on this page is listed here with where it came from. Fact means read on the site. Assumed and Proposed are Danilo’s own numbers, to be replaced in week one. Calculated is plain arithmetic on those, with the formula shown next to it.
Month one is where it starts.
Week one: I build the claims sheet from your product pages, brief the first creators on the Pre-Workout Sample Kit, launch 12 ads, and agree the CAC view with your team. Tests run at $250 an ad, losers killed early.